Firstly apologies for such a late preview, one of those weeks where you wish there was more than 24hrs in a day. Reviewing last week’s tipping, Essendon won so got that tip wrong, but tipped the rest of the winners for the round. Not all our bets won, the Freo to win Richmond to cover the line got in,Port just won in a sensational comeback, and the Suns won by 6goals plus, but the rest of the predicted margins were off! Hopefully we can get a bit closer to the mark this week.
After a 4day ANZAC weekend of footy it’s back to normal this round, and yet again Essendon are in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. The day of or before each game this season there has been something about the Bombers front of The Age and Herald Sun concerning the Bombers, this week the difference is the news has come out earlier. It could be said it’s been used to spur the team on, although this weeks revelations are the worst news that Bomber fans have read all year. I’ve neglected to go into much detail on Essendon on this blog as every man and his dog has an opinion on it. The best ones I can suggest on twitter include @DownIsTheNewUp_ @MitchellGlenn @ringsau @AFLFootyMaths and @BenCuzzupe and his @BoundForGloryFM team. Suggesting these guys as they are always up for a bit of banter about the situation too.
The news this week was the report by Ziggy Switkowski, a former Telstra CEO, had not interviewed Steven Dank or Dean Robinson, who from all the stories that have gone around appear the be the central characters that would need to be consulted. Essentially, Essendon is doing a report into its club without looking at where it has failed it’s players and fans, the Chief Wiggum phrase comes to mind, ‘Move along people, nothing to see here’. Last week on Anzac Day the morning papers delivered this article admitting 6 players had taken an anti-obesity drug which to many was an admission of guilt and now it was just a waiting game for the ASADA investigation to finish then deal the punishments as they saw fit. Then came this week’s flip flop, to completely confuse the matter!
Whether the Bombers are dealt with severe punishments is up in the air, one thing I will say is this. The NRL came down very harshly when it was found the Bulldogs were breaching the Salary Cap rules hoping that a big punishment would deter other sides from repeating it. Subsequently the Storm cheated and had 2 premierships stripped off them. Whatever the punishment dealt, teams in the AFL will not stop at trying to find that extra edge and this will not be the last time we are embroiled in a drugs in sport controversy.
Onto this week’s games now, Friday night we have Collingwood and StKilda at Etihad. Now last week the Pies were overrun by an Essendon side more determined to win and hungrier for the ball, many points during the game the men in black and white were second to the contest and while it can be advantageous for free kicks, second to the ball at each contest isn’t going to win games. Interestingly the Pies looked better when Goldsack first came on as the sub, but that didn’t last long enough, on a performance like last week top 4 might be stretching Collingwood but once they get key players back they should lift. St Kilda played in Wellington and to be honest, the slippery track was in their favor as the Swans struggled to hold onto a big lead entering the final term. It was also one of Nick Riewoldt’s better performances for the year, as he gets back into some form. Hard to pick who has momentum coming into this one, but feel the Saints defense won’t be able to hold up against Collingwood, particularly Cloke and Lynch who played more up the field. Tipping Collingwood, but the line of +26.5 to StKilda is tempting.
First up on Saturday from Etihad is the Bombers against GWS. Even with the shitstorm hanging over the club, there’s no reason for Essendon to not win this by 60points plus. Quick preview for this game, simply the Giants haven’t been able to put in 4qtr efforts and to be honest, they haven’t improved as much as first thought during the pre-season. While a 100point scoreline against the Suns looks promising, it’d be hard to see them kick 10goals this round. It’s a monster 86pt line for the Bombers to cover, while they should win easy that is quite big, so happy to take a small risk here that the GWS won’t be completely annihilated. Bombers should stay on top after this round too.
Down in Tasmania for the next match in what should be a cracker game between North Melbourne and the Power. The Kangas have been close but not close enough, the Richmond of the 2013 season if you like. I’ve been critical of their mental strength especially after losing the un-loseable against Geelong, but have softened up as well, Geelong are on fire and the effort last week to not only keep the Hawks to within 3 points but also under 100 points scored. Lindsay Thomas is starting to show the footy world what he can do when he has his head on straight and the kicking boots are working, fantastic to see after he’s had so much problems. It must be said that in parts, North dominated the clearances and inside 50′s against Hawthorn, so will need to capitalize on that if they are to get the win-loss ratio into something more positive than 1-4. Wells and Swallow are proving to be ball magnets and will need to be tagged out of the game for the Power to have a good chance of victory. On the Power, what an amazing run they are having, 2 big come from behind victories against the Crows and West Coast have proven that Ken Hinkley promise to build a Port team that never gives up. The bubble is yet to burst and the way the team is playing, with confidence and excitement, who knows where they will end up this season. Young guys like Neade Wingard and O’Shea have stood up brilliantly and the old guard yet again in Boak and Cornes have been doing what they’ve always done, just now with some support. o come back from 41points down says 2 things, incredible ticker but also, had it not been for some very poor goalkicking from the Eagles they wouldn’t have had a chance. If North are accurate, don’t see Port getting 6 in a row here, and with Ken Hinkley out of action due to a virus, unsure what effect that will have on the side. Tipping North here, but they shouldn’t be a $1.35 fave, betting Port to cover the 3 goal line.
Saturday arvo sees a replay of that fantastic prelim final from last year as the Crows host the Hawks at AAMI. Unfortunately though, the Crows got within one kick last year and it’d be very unlikely they get within 5 Saturday. The talking point from the Crows in the last round was all about the key forward Taylor Walker going down with a season ending ACL injury, the big problem though isn’t who will kick the goals but who will be a target! The obvious replacement would be either of Jenkins, McKernan or Henderson, but for a long long time since his debut game I’ve always thought Rutten to be of more value as a forward, defenders who can punch the ball are dime a dozen. It’s the Truck’s 200th game this week and even during a career where he has been an All Australian fullback, the first 3 kicks in AFL were goals for him and felt that’s where his big frame could be best used. Forever I have been proven wrong though, but it’s another one of footy’s ‘what if’s. One player that has Always struggled Rutten had been Buddy Franklin who has a dominant record against the Crows, 36 goals in 11 games, who is $1.70 for most goals this game and I’d be betting on that for sure! The rest of the Hawk’s side hasn’t been too bad either, 4 on the trot now and looking very much the team to beat again, although last week proved to be a mighty struggle. To scrape in by just 3 points was lucky but would expect them to be more comfortable against the Crows who are last when it comes to uncontested possessions and bottom half in attack, even with the loss of Cyril to yet another hamstring. As a Crows fan, will always cheer on my side but the reality is, they aren’t firing yet and may not at all this season, the Hawks should win and the 4 goal line should be easily covered.
Two Saturday night games this week should prove to be nailbiters with a big crowd expected at the MCG for Richmond and Geelong the first of the night. The Cats have looked unstoppable at times but last week they took it very easy against the Bulldogs and managed to win by just 21points, when they were expected to win by triple that. A win is still a win but they did appear to just take the foot off the pedal, doubt they will do the same this week against the Tiges. Geelong hasn’t lost to Richmond since 2006, a sign of their strength over the last few years in the AFL and of where Richmond has been at, a step above the teams below it and a step below the teams above. The Cats are number 1 for inside 50′s so far this season and with guys like Taylor floating down there, and Chapman & Hawkins returning into the side, they are very damaging, the Tiger’s defence will need to be on the ball. Which, last week they weren’t in the final minutes of the game. Yes, the debate was all about whether a goal had hit the post or the umpire but the reality is, Richmond were ahead with 2mins to go and lost the game because they didn’t get an extra man back behind the penultimate contest where Freo goaled. The first 3 rounds of the year they looked like a new Richmond they had always promised to be, the last 2 rounds has put them back to 2012 mode and, one feels even with their best effort this week they won’t be able to match Geelong. 2 big milestones for the Cats this week, Stevie J 200 games and Corey Enright 250, a win at the G a perfect way to celebrate, Geelong by 3 goals coincidentally is also the Line for this match.
Second up Saturday night is an interesting clash at Metricon with the Suns and Dockers battling it out. As explained before, Freo won by the slimmest of margins last round and have been good but patchy so far this year. The loss of Fyfe to suspension hurts but the gameplan Ross Lyon has always played doesn’t necessarily need all stars on deck so long as the replacement gives their all. The 4th ranked defensive team have also been one of the best tackling teams, no coincidence there as they go hand in hand, the experience they have and the pressure they will put the young Suns under should get them over the line but it may not be so easy. Look out for debutant Jesse Lonergan for Gold Coast as there has been many a good thing said about him, and also for big Charlie Dixon who was very good at scoring 6 goals last round in Canberra. The sign’s are good for the Suns, 2 wins and a very tight loss so far and they will enter this game thinking, if everything goes right they can win. It’s the attitude every team should have, self beleif is paramount, a good start will go along way to them having a chance here. Tipping Freo but again like last week, going against them at the line currently at 14.5.
Sunday’s games begin at the SCG with the Swans against the Lions. Put Simply, Michael Voss is in trouble. A winning percentage of 40% and just 2 finals in his time in charge, this is his 6th and most likely final year coaching the Lions. When it comes to coaches contracts often don’t mean much as it’s all about results, particularly finals. There’s been times in games where they’ve lacked well, everything, they won as they needed to last week against the Dees but that’s hardly a result to send shivers through the AFL. Sydney meanwhile are doing what they seemingly always do, a model of consistency, slow start to the season just winning the games they need to. The final qtr last week in Wellington they let a decent 6goal lead get halved but they were never really in any doubt, and expect them to win this week with ease.
Carlton and Melbourne play off at the MCG Sunday and you can bet 90% of the crowd will be in Navy Blue expecting a shellacking. Won’t be in the crowd myself but expecting a very one-sided result. If anything, the best thing to look out for is how the Blues treat the game. Could well decide early on to smash ahead and build an unassailable lead and then cruise alone, which is what I feel they should do. Use it as a real life practice run, make all kicks at goal pressure kicks by going for the set shot, reality is if they are to be a finals side they need to kick the pressure goals at the MCG. Melbourne were far and away better against the Lions than they had been previously but that’s saying more about how far off the Lions are currently too. Watts showed glimmer’s of hope and it was Trengrove and Sylvia working well in the centre, but as expected a 2nd half fadeout gave Melbourne no chance of a win. Once they can put together 4 qtr efforts, they will look alot better and it will give them more confidence to lose to a side like the Blues by 5 goals instead of 15, but for now that appears years away. Carlton has won the last 5 encounters by an average of 52 points, expect a similar margin here this weekend as they will be too strong in the contested footy and too classy in the midfield.
Last game for the round on Sunday arvo from Subiaco is the West Coast Eagles and the Western Bulldogs, and we see the return of Nick Natnui, an integral cog of the Eagles side. Some have said that he has been the missing link in the side, this week could prove that although don’t expect brilliance in his first game back. The much larger issues at hand for the Eagles are the inability to kick at goal (17goals 42 in last fortnight), which has cost them potentially a couple of wins this season, and ticker. It’s hard to judge a team of having no ticker as you can only assume every player gives 100% every week but the result from last week was telling, nearly 7 goals up and lose by 5points. Luckily for West Coast, after each very questionable performance this year they have had a relatively simple game next up, which on paper this should be but the Bulldogs will bring some confidence over to the west. Last week they showed plenty of heart although not enough class to get within 4 goals of the Cats but its the lack of personnel that’s holding them back, noone up forward of note is there to take the contested mark. When they’re running at goal they play more attacking obviously but can break through team’s defenses and if they are to have any chance they need to surprise West Coast early and aim to run them off their feet. Saying this…including 2012, the Bulldogs have lost 15 of their last 16 AFL games, and West Coast should just win at home, Wellingham if he plays is a quality IN for the Eagles too.
So recapping, the tips for this round are Collingwood, Essendon, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle, Carlton, Sydney and West Coast. Follow on Twitter @mugpuntaus and @TheSportsCode Best of luck for the weekend and hope your team wins, cheers!
The Sports Code 